Archive - Predictions

🎙️ 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War?

Plus Israel-Hamas & Turkey-Sweden NATO updates in Episode 2 of The Long Telegram podcast.

Oct 28, 2023 •

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🎙️ 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza?

A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict.

Oct 23, 2023 •

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004: Robin Hanson is Right & Everyone Else is Wrong.

The Future of Forecasting isn't where you expected.

Oct 21, 2023 •

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September 2023

003: Diving into Natural Disaster Forecasting

Plus: CFTC outlines PM stance, upcoming 🇺🇸 government shutdown? & more.

Sep 16, 2023 •

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002: What Makes a Forecast Good?

Getting good information from prediction markets requires good forecasts. But what makes that? From questions to subjects to the data available, we…

Sep 9, 2023 •

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001: Beware Danger Beyond the Goldilocks Zone

001: Beware Danger Beyond the Goldilocks Zone

Sep 1, 2023 •

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