Getting good information from prediction markets requires good forecasts. But what makes that? From questions to subjects to the data available, we break down the ingredients.
Does there exist/are there linchpin incidents or individuals who can cause wider ramifications? Like subprime loans leading to GFC leading to Trump/Ukraine-Russia etc. Focussing forecasting on these linchpins could be efficient provided well-worked-out theory existed.
Thank you for picking up where Nuno Sempere has stopped reporting, for now, at least. I like your format and the broader coverage than what you had in Crowd Money, which I thought was really good.
One of my big concerns is that there are many relatively new ventures in the forecasting field, but no breakthroughs to economic success that I can find. Where are the unicorns, the SPACs, the IPOs? I hope you could report on at least one such clearly successful venture.
Glad to see you two back in action and glad you responded to Hoel’s piece.
I still feel that prediction markets have an arm tied behind their back and until regulations in US change it’s premature to dismiss them. To his credit Hoel mentioned the legal gray zone in his (well written) piece but I thought he underplayed that factor a tad.
Excellent point about the short time in operation of many such platforms. I'm in the initial stage of a summarization experiment to evaluate how to use forecasts as an integral part of a scalable news summarization + associated forecasts system. The advantage would be that forecasts, if successful, would give credibility with the associations news stories created largely via summarizations of the rationales of forecasters.
Interesting angle: linchpins.
Does there exist/are there linchpin incidents or individuals who can cause wider ramifications? Like subprime loans leading to GFC leading to Trump/Ukraine-Russia etc. Focussing forecasting on these linchpins could be efficient provided well-worked-out theory existed.
Thank you for picking up where Nuno Sempere has stopped reporting, for now, at least. I like your format and the broader coverage than what you had in Crowd Money, which I thought was really good.
One of my big concerns is that there are many relatively new ventures in the forecasting field, but no breakthroughs to economic success that I can find. Where are the unicorns, the SPACs, the IPOs? I hope you could report on at least one such clearly successful venture.
Glad to see you two back in action and glad you responded to Hoel’s piece.
I still feel that prediction markets have an arm tied behind their back and until regulations in US change it’s premature to dismiss them. To his credit Hoel mentioned the legal gray zone in his (well written) piece but I thought he underplayed that factor a tad.
Keep it up!
Excellent point about the short time in operation of many such platforms. I'm in the initial stage of a summarization experiment to evaluate how to use forecasts as an integral part of a scalable news summarization + associated forecasts system. The advantage would be that forecasts, if successful, would give credibility with the associations news stories created largely via summarizations of the rationales of forecasters.