Predictions | GeoVane | Substack

003: Diving into Natural Disaster Forecasting

Plus: CFTC outlines PM stance, upcoming 🇺🇸 government shutdown? & more.

Sep 16 •

and

New

002: What Makes a Forecast Good?

Getting good information from prediction markets requires good forecasts. But what makes that? From questions to subjects to the data available, we…

Sep 9 •

and

001: Beware Danger Beyond the Goldilocks Zone

001: Beware Danger Beyond the Goldilocks Zone

Sep 1 •

and

Predictions

Predictions

Forecasting, geopolitics, and prediction markets by GeoVane.

Recommendations

Telling the Future

Robert de Neufville

Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Nate Silver

Astral Codex Ten

Astral Codex Ten

Scott Alexander

Above The Fold

Manifold Markets

One-armed Pundit

One-armed Pundit

One-armed Pundit

Social

Predictions

About Archive Recommendations Sitemap

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts